El Niño Threat Looms

Itai Mazire

Zimbabwe faces a high probability of a looming El Niño event during the 2026/27 rainy season, with forecasts indicating a significant chance of below-normal rainfall.

The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has issued a preliminary update, urging calm but emphasising the need for proactive measures.

Global climate forecasting centers predict an 88 to 94 percent chance of an El Niño event, historically linked to drier-than-average conditions in Zimbabwe.

“Historically, El Niño conditions in Zimbabwe carry a 65 percent chance of below-normal rainfall, which can lead to drier-than-average conditions.”

Despite the concerning outlook, the MSD cautions against premature decisions.

They said that early forecasts face a “spring predictability barrier,” meaning atmospheric and oceanic conditions could still change significantly before the season begins.

Consequently, the department has not yet released its official seasonal forecast.

“Because of this inherent uncertainty, the MSD has not yet issued its official seasonal forecast and warns the public and stakeholders against making final agricultural or financial decisions based solely on these preliminary models,” the statement read.

A more definitive national outlook (NACOF) is anticipated in August 2026, following the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF).

In the interim, the MSD is advising both the public and the farming community to remain composed.

They recommend continuing with standard preparations for the upcoming season and adopting climate-resilient practices.

These practices include water conservation and the identification of drought-tolerant seed varieties.

The MSD further encouraged stakeholders to stay informed through official channels.

“Stakeholders are encouraged to stay informed exclusively through official MSD channels for regular updates as the weather outlook becomes clearer in the months ahead.”

The upcoming NACOF report will incorporate more recent data, providing crucial scientific guidance for accurate seasonal planning.

The MSD will continue to monitor updates closely.