Zimbabwe’s Agricultural Recovery to Power Broad Economic Expansion

Zimbabwe’s recovering agriculture sector is set to fuel increased activity across various industries, particularly agro-processing, logistics, and rural retail, according to farming sector players and analysts.

This year’s strong agricultural performance is projected to stimulate growth in downstream industries, including food manufacturing, transport services, and retail operations in rural communities. The sector’s recovery is poised to play a crucial role in driving Zimbabwe towards its 2025 economic growth target of 6%, a significant improvement from the 2% growth registered in the previous year.

Agriculture, a cornerstone of Zimbabwe’s economy, is expected to expand by 12.8% in 2025. This comes after a sharp 15% decline in 2024, primarily caused by drought conditions linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon.

The anticipated rebound is underpinned by better-than-expected harvests of maize, tobacco, and winter wheat, supported by improved rainfall, wider access to inputs, and competitive producer prices. FBC Securities, in its 2025 mid-year economic outlook, highlighted that the sector’s turnaround is already boosting input sales, processing capacity, rural consumption, and freight volumes.

As agricultural production rises, industries reliant on farm output—such as food and animal feed producers—are expected to benefit. Increased activity is also anticipated in beverage manufacturing, construction, and retail, driven by rising disposable incomes in farming communities.

Companies in sectors such as clothing, motor sales, and home appliances are also optimistic about higher demand, with agriculture acting as a key driver. Transport and logistics businesses are experiencing a direct impact as crop movements across the country increase.

Unifreight Group CEO Richard Clarke reported a surge in tobacco-related transportation contracts this year, prompting the company to expand its fleet. “Tobacco remains central to our strategy, and we are seeing higher volumes this year. We’ve secured new merchant contracts to accommodate this growth,” he noted.

Rural economic activity is also improving as farmers earn more from increased agricultural output, leading to higher spending in local stores and businesses.

Zimbabwe achieved a major milestone in its tobacco industry in 2025, surpassing previous records by selling over 323 million kilograms of the crop by the end of June. This marked a 47% increase from the same period in 2024, largely due to the success of contract farming models and stable pricing.

This new record eclipses the previous high of 296 million kg achieved in 2023, according to the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board (TIMB). Tobacco remains one of Zimbabwe’s top foreign currency earners, alongside gold and platinum. The country is currently the top tobacco producer in Africa and ranks fourth globally in flue-cured tobacco production.

The nation’s wheat sector has also seen notable growth. This year’s winter crop is expected to yield at least 600,000 tonnes, surpassing the national demand of 360,000 tonnes. In 2024, Zimbabwe harvested 563,961 tonnes of wheat, an improvement over the 465,548 tonnes achieved in 2023. The gains have been attributed to government-led initiatives and collaborations with farmers and financial institutions.

Maize production is expected to recover significantly in the 2024/2025 farming season, with projections indicating a harvest of over 2.3 million tonnes. This follows a challenging 2023/2024 season, during which 70% of the country’s rain-fed crops were lost due to drought.

African Distillers chairman Mr. Matlhogonolo Valela expressed optimism about the outlook, citing agricultural recovery, mining, tourism, and infrastructure development as key contributors to future business growth.

The horticulture sector is also poised for strong performance this year. With increasing cultivation areas and maturing orchards, production of high-value fruits such as citrus, avocados, and blueberries is expected to rise significantly. Blueberry output, in particular, is forecast to grow by 50%, reaching 12,000 tonnes compared to 8,000 tonnes in the previous year.

Agriculture continues to play a vital role in Zimbabwe’s economy—not only contributing between 11% and 14% of GDP but also supporting 70% of the population’s livelihoods. The sector supplies 60% of raw materials used by the manufacturing industry and accounts for around 45% of the country’s total exports.