From Diamonds to Lithium: Africa’s Chance to Rewrite the Resource Story

LESEDI (not her real name), a promising entrepreneur in Gaborone, the capital city of Botswana, sounds very dejected as she reflects on her garment manufacturing business.

“We haven’t had any orders since October last year, I think. They were going through a transition, trying to cut down costs,” she says.

There have been indications that this could change for the better in the near future, but expectations are not high.

“They had a meeting with us that they are done with the transition and promised that orders should start coming through. But I don’t think it will be like before, as you know the diamond sales have gone down,” she added.

Botswana has long been regarded as one of the world’s most stable democracies, and Lesedi’s story is one of the reasons the sparsely populated country is often celebrated as one of Africa’s greatest success stories in natural resource management.

She had managed to build a thriving business supplying personal protective equipment to the diamond mines under an agreement brokered by the government for local suppliers.

Yet this strong reputation has tended to obscure deeper concerns about how much of the country’s natural resource wealth truly benefits its people.

Botswana has not sold any diamonds for months, and the ensuing economic fallout has begun to strip away the veneer of stability, revealing deep-seated structural cracks.

Lab-grown gems are now more sought after, and Anglo American is offloading De Beers.

The decision follows a series of value hits triggered by Anglo American itself: a US$2.3 billion write-down, coming on the heels of a US$3 billion reduction reported the previous year, both of which significantly impacted the company’s valuation.

The country had been locked in negotiations spanning different administrations with Anglo American’s majority-owned miner, De Beers, for a greater share of the diamonds.

Negotiations over the deal started in 2018, but an agreement announced in 2023 under former President Mokgweetsi Masisi was never formally signed.

Only after the appointment of Masisi’s successor, Duma Boko, was the agreement sealed.

Among the provisions of the deal, during the first five years, the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) will sell 30% of Debswana’s output, up from 25% previously, with the remainder going to Anglo American.

The provisional agreement reached with Botswana’s previous government had ODC’s allocation from Debswana Botswana’s joint venture with De Beers reaching 50% at the end of the 10-year pact.
The allocation will now reach 40% after the same period.

The deal was seen as critical for the southern African country since its economy is largely dependent on the export of diamonds.

As of early 2026, the Botswana government, under President Duma Boko, is actively working to take advantage of Anglo American’s disinvestment and increase its 15% stake in De Beers to a controlling share of over 50%.

This move aims to secure economic sovereignty and greater control over the diamond value chain, with potential financing secured from partners like the Oman sovereign wealth fund.

However, with the write-downs, the economic viability of any potential deal is still in question.

Context: Botswana supplies roughly 70% of De Beers’ rough diamond production, making the company a strategic asset.

Timeline & Status: Following announcements in late 2025, the government is proceeding with acquisition steps despite a challenging, low-demand diamond market.

Botswana’s move is driven by the need to have a stronger voice in the diamond industry as Anglo American divests its stake.

Diversification Efforts: The government is urgently seeking to diversify by exploring for other critical minerals, such as copper and cobalt, and investing in renewable energy, technology, and agriculture.

Exploration Push: Roughly 70% of unexplored territory is being targeted for new mineral development to replace lost diamond revenue.

Slow Recovery: Projections suggest only a modest economic recovery, with growth potentially returning to around 1.9% in 2026, assuming successful structural reforms.

As a result, Botswana is at a critical juncture, needing to swiftly pivot away from its 50-year reliance on diamonds to avoid deeper economic hardship.

The falling diamond revenues have already begun to reshape national economic policy. Botswana’s economy contracted by 1% in 2025, prompting intensified efforts to diversify the mining sector and support the government’s target of 3.1% GDP growth in 2026.

According to the country’s statistics agency, gross domestic product decreased by 5.3% on a year-on-year basis, the steepest quarterly contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Botswana’s economy is forecast to rebound in 2026 after two years of decline, although increasing fiscal deficits are likely to drive public debt above the government’s legal ceiling, Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe has also said.

Speaking during the national budget presentation on Monday, Gaolathe projected 3.1% economic growth for 2026, following estimated contractions of 0.4% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2024.

Diamonds continue to underpin the economy, accounting for roughly one-third of government revenue and about three-quarters of foreign exchange earnings, official figures show.

Even with a projected economic rebound, public finances remain strained. The budget deficit for the fiscal year beginning in April is expected to reach 26.35 billion pula (US$1.91 billion), or 8.9% of GDP, up from a projected 25.48 billion pula (US$1.9 billion) deficit in the current fiscal year.

Gaolathe noted that the growing deficit stems from a persistent gap between spending obligations and realistically available resources.

Consequently, the debt load is set to climb. The debt-to-GDP ratio was projected to reach 38.7% by March 2026 and rise further to 44.6% by March 2027, surpassing the current statutory limit of 40%.

The minister recognised that breaching the debt ceiling could raise short-term concerns among investors and markets. However, he argued that the economic harm from drastic spending cuts needed to stay within the limit would be even greater.

Botswana’s challenge in achieving economic balance from its natural resources reflects a common pattern across much of Africa, where economies continue to rely heavily on primary resource-based industries.

This pattern is evident throughout the continent, and as global powers once again scramble for access to Africa’s critical mineral resources, concerns are growing that Africans could be left empty-handed once the minerals are depleted.

This article is taken from Finance Africa quarterlyFinance Africa quarterly, a Bard Global Finance Institute, a newly-formed local research organisation.