Zimbabwe’s Exploration and Mining Prospects Looking Increasingly Bright

Zimbabwe needs to strengthen its exploration drive and create a stable policy environment if it is to fully exploit its vast mineral potential and attract greater investment into the mining sector.

As global competition for critical minerals and rare earth elements intensifies, Zimbabwe is being presented with an opportunity to turn its largely underexplored geological potential into long-term economic growth.

The mining industry remains central to the country’s economic transformation plans, but industry experts say greater investment in exploration is required to discover new deposits and replace ageing mines.

Junior exploration companies  usually small, geologist-led firms that specialise in identifying new mineral deposits are responsible for between 70 and 90 percent of new discoveries globally. By comparison, large mining companies have accounted for less than five percent of discoveries over the past 25 years.

The model generally sees junior explorers taking on the high risks associated with finding deposits, before larger mining companies acquire or partner them to develop commercially viable mines.

Zimbabwe has already witnessed this model through the US$378 million transaction involving Prospect Resources’ Arcadia lithium project and Huayou Cobalt in 2022.

Against this background, there are growing calls for Zimbabwe’s mining policies to support both junior explorers and established mining houses by reducing exploration barriers while providing investors with confidence that the regulatory environment will remain stable.

Following the recent Exploration Symposium held during the Mine Entra exhibition in Bulawayo, The Sunday Mail spoke to Duration Gold managing director Allan Dolan, who participated in the discussions, about Zimbabwe’s exploration prospects and the future of the mining industry.

Q: What policy interventions are required to make it easier for junior exploration companies to operate in Zimbabwe?

A: The biggest problem for both junior explorers and major mining companies is uncertainty, particularly when policy changes are introduced unexpectedly without being part of a clearly defined national framework.

Zimbabwe’s mining laws have generally stood the test of time and contributed to significant mineral discoveries during the 1980s and 1990s.

In many cases, therefore, the challenge is not necessarily the legislation itself, but how efficiently it is implemented.

For example, applications submitted to the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development and the Mining Affairs Board should be processed within reasonable timeframes. This includes applications for exclusive prospecting orders (EPOs), extensions, mining leases and other approvals.

It is also important to recognise that large mines do not necessarily emerge from massive greenfield exploration programmes. Many are built gradually, beginning as small operations and expanding through brownfields exploration.

That has historically been the case with many Zimbabwean mines.

The policy framework should therefore allow junior explorers, which often operate on annual budgets of around US$4 million to US$5 million, to begin with relatively small projects and expand them over time.

The global journey from discovery to mine construction now takes about 24 years on average, according to US investment bank Jefferies Group LLC, and the period is becoming longer.

Zimbabwe therefore needs a comprehensive exploration policy developed after consultation with junior explorers, major mining companies, landowners and Government.

Once such a framework is established, there must also be consistency. Policies should not continually be altered simply because exploration and mine development take longer than expected. There are no shortcuts when it comes to exploration and mine development.

Q: Greenfield exploration is said to have odds of roughly one successful discovery in every 1 000 projects. How can the EPL system be improved to make such high-risk exploration more viable?

A: Junior explorers normally begin by gathering and studying as much geological and historical information as possible about a country.

Zimbabwe therefore needs a properly resourced Geological Survey capable of providing explorers with access to historical exploration information generated by previous companies, together with Government geological maps and other relevant datasets.

That information should be easily accessible and available either free of charge or at a nominal cost.

Government should also adequately fund the Geological Survey so that it can continuously expand the country’s geological database.

This could include more detailed geological mapping as well as updated airborne geophysical surveys.

Making such information available would reduce the initial risks and costs faced by junior explorers and help them identify areas with stronger exploration potential.

Q: Given that discovering a new deposit can cost between US$170 million and US$190 million, what role can local financial institutions play in funding early-stage exploration?

A: Broad geological mapping is primarily the responsibility of the Geological Survey, which is an important institution within the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development.

The priority should therefore be ensuring that the Geological Survey has adequate resources.

It serves not only as the custodian of Zimbabwe’s historical geological and exploration information, but also has a responsibility to continuously generate new data.

That requires sustained Government funding and prioritisation.

Q: What factors could be discouraging major Western mining companies from making long-term investments in Zimbabwe?

A: The development of a new mine is a very long-term undertaking.

On average, it can take around 25 years to discover and develop a mine before production begins, after which the operation may continue for another 10 to 25 years.

Exploration alone can require between US$170 million and US$190 million, while construction of the mine can require several hundred million dollars more.

Investors are therefore looking at a potential commitment lasting between 35 and 50 years.

For that reason, certainty is extremely important.

Investors need confidence that mining rights will remain secure and that the tax regime, financial incentives and other key conditions governing their investments will not be changed unexpectedly.

Q: How can Zimbabwe establish a predictable fiscal system that can compete with other successful mining jurisdictions on the continent?

A: Ultimately, every country has the right to determine its own mining and exploration policies.

However, those decisions should be informed by reliable evidence and a clear understanding of the trade-offs involved.

Zimbabwe is competing with other countries for the same international mining capital, so it needs to understand how its exploration, mining and fiscal regimes compare with those of competing jurisdictions.

I believe an independent international expert should first conduct a comprehensive comparison of Zimbabwe’s current exploration, mining and fiscal frameworks.

The study should then be made public.

Such an assessment would give policymakers and stakeholders an objective understanding of Zimbabwe’s competitive position and the potential consequences of different policy choices.

That information could then be used to guide consultations and, ultimately, the formulation of mining and fiscal legislation.

Q: What lessons can Zimbabwe draw from transactions such as Prospect Resources’ US$378 million Arcadia Lithium deal when developing exit opportunities for junior explorers?

A: The discovery of the Arcadia lithium deposit and its eventual acquisition by Huayou Cobalt in 2022 is a good demonstration of how the junior explorer-major mining company model can work.

Junior explorers can take on the early-stage exploration risk, while larger mining companies can subsequently provide the capital and expertise required to develop a discovery into a producing mine.

But the question is why Zimbabwe has seen so few transactions of this nature in recent years.

The answer should emerge from the independent comparative assessment I have referred to.

That assessment should help Zimbabwe answer two important questions: How can the country attract a fair share of the roughly US$12 billion spent globally on mineral exploration each year, and what conditions do major mining companies require before they are willing to acquire or partner junior explorers?

Q: How could declining production from existing mines affect Zimbabwe’s economic development ambitions over the next four years?

A: I refer to this as a GDP gap analysis.

The exercise would compare the contribution existing mines are making to Zimbabwe’s GDP today with the expected decline in that contribution as older operations reach the end of their productive lives.

This should be assessed over both the next five years, which corresponds with the National Development Strategy timeframe, and the longer 24-year period that reflects the average time required to discover and build a new mine.

At the same time, Zimbabwe needs realistic projections of the new mines that could come on stream during those periods.

Those projections should consider the type of mineral, the size of the resource, expected annual production, capital requirements and operating costs.

The objective would be to establish how much the new mines could contribute to GDP and determine whether their development will be sufficient to replace the economic contribution lost as existing mines become depleted and close.

Q: Duration Gold’s Vubachikwe Mine in Gwanda is currently under care and maintenance. What are your plans for increasing production and transforming it into a larger operation?

A: Duration Gold, together with its technical advisers, has developed a phased expansion programme for Mining Lease 16, which includes Vubachikwe Mine.

The programme is based on more than eight technical studies carried out over a three-year period.

Historically, Vubachikwe was a relatively small gold operation, with peak annual production of less than 10 000 ounces, equivalent to approximately 283.5 kilogrammes.

Our objective is to transform it into a medium-sized Tier 2 or Tier 3 operation capable of producing as much as 200 000 ounces, or approximately 5.66 tonnes, of gold annually within five years.

The expansion is expected to require an investment of several hundred million dollars.

Implementation began in early 2026, with additional drilling to confirm resources and further metallurgical studies already under way. Work on the design and procurement of the processing plant is also progressing.

Vubachikwe has experienced a challenging period in the past, and this affected the implementation of our growth plans.

We believe those difficulties are now behind us.

We have a strong management team and workforce that are fully committed to the project’s success.

Together with the improving macroeconomic and investment environment, these developments give us strong confidence about Vubachikwe’s future.