Zimbabwe is expecting a strategic grain surplus of up to 964,945 tonnes after national maize production increased by 17.1 percent during the 2025/26 season, Agriculture Minister Dr Anxious Masuka has reported.
Presenting an update on summer-crop marketing and winter production to Cabinet on Tuesday, Dr Masuka said the projected surplus would range from 550,945 tonnes to 964,945 tonnes, depending on national consumption levels.
The lower estimate is based on consumption of 10 kilogrammes per person each month, while the higher projection assumes monthly consumption of seven kilogrammes per person.
According to Dr Masuka’s report, maize production rose from 2.29 million tonnes in 2025 to 2.69 million tonnes in 2026—an increase of approximately 391,465 tonnes.
Cabinet said the improved harvest was driven by growth in both productivity and the area planted.
“The increase in national maize output was driven by an increase in both productivity and hectarage,” Cabinet said.
The area planted to maize expanded by 8.2 percent, rising from approximately 1.81 million hectares last year to 1.96 million hectares this season.
Government grain stocks held by the Grain Marketing Board stood at 252,177 tonnes as of August 19. Deliveries for the current marketing season were 126 percent higher than those recorded during the 2024/25 season.
Mashonaland West Province dominated deliveries, contributing 50.1 percent of the grain received by the GMB.
Dr Masuka also reported that the GMB had cleared all outstanding payments to farmers for grain delivered during the 2024/25 marketing season. Arrangements had been introduced to facilitate timely payments during the current season.
The projected surplus could reduce Zimbabwe’s dependence on grain imports and strengthen national reserves against droughts and other production shocks.
However, the final quantity available to the country will depend on household consumption, post-harvest losses, deliveries to formal markets and the capacity of authorities to purchase and store grain.
Tobacco Farmers Hit by Lower Prices
While tobacco production continued to grow, farmers received substantially lower average prices during the 2026 marketing season.
Dr Masuka reported that 358.4 million kilogrammes of tobacco had been sold by August 18, representing a one percent increase from the 354 million kilogrammes sold in 2025.
However, the average selling price fell from US$3.32 per kilogramme last year to US$2.49 this season—a decline of about 25 percent.
The drop means that the larger tobacco crop did not necessarily translate into higher earnings for individual farmers, particularly when rising labour, transport and production costs are considered.
Tobacco exports performed more strongly, reaching 138.25 million kilogrammes valued at US$791.85 million by August 19.
The crop was exported at an average price of US$5.73 per kilogramme. Export volumes increased by 39 percent, while the average export price rose by four percent compared with the same period in 2025.
The difference between the US$2.49 average local selling price and the US$5.73 export price could revive questions about how earnings are distributed between farmers, merchants and exporters.
Wheat Target Exceeded
Dr Masuka further reported that Zimbabwe had planted 106 percent of its targeted winter-wheat area, improving from 101 percent recorded at the same point last year.
Farmers also planted 7,013 hectares of barley, while the Government expects a harvest of 243,850 tonnes of Irish potatoes from 9,000 hectares.
Attention will now turn to harvesting, storage and timely farmer payments—and whether the improved production figures translate into affordable food for Zimbabwean households.
