Zambians Head to the Polls as Hichilema Seeks a Second Term

Zambia held its national election on Thursday, a pivotal moment for President Hakainde Hichilema, who is hoping to prove that the economic progress his government has engineered since the pandemic-era debt crisis will be rewarded with another five years in power.

Observers expect Hichilema to hold onto his position, largely thanks to the resources and visibility that come with holding office and a rival camp that has failed to unite behind a single challenger. Still, newcomer Brian Mundubile, running for the presidency for the first time, has been packing venues with enthusiastic supporters across parts of the country.

Since assuming the presidency in 2021, Hichilema has guided the nation through a restructuring of its sovereign debt — obligations the country fell behind on back in 2020 — and overseen a broader economic stabilization effort.

Beyond its economic story, Zambia carries outsized geopolitical significance. It ranks as Africa’s second-biggest copper producer behind the Democratic Republic of Congo, and its reserves of critical minerals have made it a prize for global powers: China has long been deeply invested in the mining sector, while Washington is working to deepen its own foothold.

Those competing interests surfaced visibly earlier this year, when talks over as much as $2 billion in American health assistance broke down after Zambian officials accused Washington of conditioning the funds on concessions in the mining sector.

Living Costs Dominate Voters’ Minds

On Thursday, all three tiers of government — the presidency, parliament, and local councils — were decided in a single nationwide ballot for a population of roughly 22 million. Ballot boxes were scheduled to close at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT), and authorities anticipate announcing the outcome on Monday.

At the polling stations, sentiment about the incumbent was on display. “I voted for HH because he cares about us,” said James Phiri, a 29-year-old student at the University of Zambia, referring to the president by the familiar initials many citizens use.

Phiri pointed to one tangible policy as proof: “Things are better after he re-introduced meal allowances.” Hichilema had followed through on a pledge from his campaign trail by reinstating financial support for university students — an initiative scrapped under his predecessor’s administration.

Yet the affordability of daily life remains a persistent hardship for much of the population, and analysts consider it the issue most likely to dent Hichilema’s support, even as headline economic data looks healthier.

Under the IMF’s latest outlook, Zambia’s economy is forecast to expand by 4.3% this year, up from 3.8% in 2024, inflows of foreign capital have strengthened, and price growth has slowed to levels not seen for several years.

The real debate, however, is whether ordinary citizens are actually feeling that turnaround.

“I have just come from firing someone. We are tired of stories about economic progress,” said Samuel Chitendwe, a 47-year-old welder raising four children, who cast his ballot for Mundubile.

Meanwhile, rights advocates have raised concerns about alleged political repression in the run-up to election day — claims the government firmly rejects.

Freedom House, a Washington-based nonprofit, classifies Zambia as “partly free.” While noting that the country holds regular multi-party elections, the organization argues that rival parties confront “onerous legal and practical obstacles to fair competition.”

The electoral rules set a clear bar for victory: any presidential hopeful must clear the 50% mark of votes cast to win outright. Should no candidate reach that threshold, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff, which must be conducted within 37 days of the initial poll.